Which Brands Might Be The Next F.P. Journe? - 2022 Edition
An expanded ranking of 21 independent brands
At the end of 2020, I posted an article in this Newsletter named "Which brands might be the next F.P. Journe? - A quantitative attempt to an elusive and subjective question". The article became a guest post at the Rescapement and has been viewed 3000+ times on Watchville. The idea was to look at what factors have made F.P. Journe a runaway success and grade other brands on the same factors.
2021 has turned out to be a fantastic year for the independent watchmakers. The top two brands in our ad-hoc study one year ago, De Bethune and H. Moser, have done particularly well. Both have produced exquisite timepieces recognized by industry peers and experts at the GPHG awards. De Bethune has formed strategic relationship with the WatchBox, the top preowned watch site. The CEO of H. Moser has been very active in promoting the brand including participating on the new social platforms like Clubhouse. In various auctions held in 2021, including Only Watch that was closely followed by the watch community, both brands have done extremely well, surpassing previous records.
With the success, new watches from De Bethune and H. Moser are hard to get nowadays. The long waitlists are common for the popular models. Another top brand Gronefeld in our ranking stopped taking new orders due to the overwhelming demands. Some of these models are as difficult to buy as the F.P. Journe pieces now. It is wonderful to see that the “Be like Journe” indicator does offer useful insights in predicting winners. For watch collectors and lovers, we have to expand our horizon and explore more less familiar brands.
So here is the 2022 edition of the "Next F.P. Journe" list, where we will compare and benchmark 21 brands with F.P. Journe. First, let's review the six criteria and the rationales behind them.
#1 "Collection Lineup": A compelling collection including a full spectrum of timepieces. The lineup would ideally encompass the simple 3-hand watches to the most complicated ones, in all price ranges.
#2 "Availability and Volume": managing the production to meet rising demands. Brands need to avoid 3-5 year wait lists but don’t want to be ahead of market need either. F.P. Journe’s 900 annual production while keeping robust demand is a gold reference. New watches being sold at grey market at discounts is certainly a sign of not managing production volume well.
#3 "GPHG Wins and Nominations": strong indicators of industry recognitions. Patek Philippe and Rolex don't need the awards, but for the indie brands, this is a shortcut to free media exposure and collector interests.
#4 "Boutique/AD/Direct": figuring out the best way to connect with watch buyers. The tricky thing is that a brand needs to adjust the channel strategy as it grows.
#5 "Founder and Brand Image": Founders or CEOs who are watchmakers definitely have an edge. If not a watchmaker, works harder and be creative to promote products and brands.
#6 "Auctions": the performance is a result of doing all the right things and an indicator of strong collector interest as well.
As a benchmark, F.P. Journe is rated 5 on all 6 categories with a total score of 30. All the other brands are scored accordingly, in comparing to Journe and each other. The scoring was done by the author alone, based on mostly public information.
I tried to be as objectively as possible. Don't be offended if your favorite brands are ranked lower than you feel. It is just one person’s research and opinion. Please leave comments below, so I may take your thoughts into accounts for future research.
Without further ado, here is the new "Be Like Journe" ranking for 2022.
Here are a few comments on this year’s ranking results.
21 indie brands are included in this ranking, compared to last year’s 8 brands. De Bethune and MB&F tie for the 1st place, followed by H. Moser & Cie and Greubel Forsey.
Most of the 8 brands in last year’s study have been scored higher, reflecting these brands’ great progress in bridging the gaps with the industry leader, F.P. Journe.
An affordable, entry-level model may expand the appeal of the brands tremendously. F.P. Journe introduced early on the $20K (original price) Chronometre Bleu which became a huge hit. There was a hint that MB&F may make a more widely available version of the affordable M.A.D. Edition 1. If a brand only produces high-end, high priced pieces, they may stay a niche brand. It is hard to achieve F.P. Journe's wide recognition without attracting a wider audience.
GPHG is like the Oscar Awards for the watch industry. Just like winning an Oscar makes a movie more popular, so does winning a GPHG award, especially for less known indie brands. Gronefeld, Habring2 and Kudoke are the non-Swiss brands who have won awards and benefited from the GPHG halo. Ressence, Moritz Grossmann, and Lang & Heyne must try harder! Best of good luck to them.
Brands need to tell their stories better and the founders/CEOs must do their part. The CEOs from H. Moser, MB&F, De Bethune, Czapek and Moritz Grossmann have been working hard. They would attend trade-shows, be active on social media, do interviews and live streams. All these efforts are paying off, as we see the exposure of their brands going up.
Mr. Kari Voutilainen, his eponymous brand ranked quite high in the list, surprised the industry by taking helm at the Urban Jürgensen in Nov., 2021. Kari also owns Comblemine, a top notch maker of dials and movements used by many indie brands like Gronefeld, Armin Strom, Sarpaneva and Sartory Billard. The group of Voutilainen, Urban Jürgensen and Comblemine will be a formidable force to be reckoned with.
Akrivia was considered a rising star in last year’s study, and it remains the most promising young brand. The new models were sold out quickly despite the hefty prices. The stunning result at the Only Watch auction was another proof of the brand’s emerging star power.
Land & Heyne is a collectors’ favorite but also very understated. With both founders not at the company, they will need to find a face for the brand. The launch of Hector was a daring move, but the promotion was a bit lukewarm.
Kudoke has produced many dial variations of its Kudoke 2, including collaborations with retail partners. This is a great strategy to make the offering more interesting while building channel support. They do need to produce new and attractive offerings, Kudoke 3 and more, to keep up the buzz.
Parmigiani Fleurier had fared well in last year’s ranking but is slipping relatively to the competitive peers. Mr. Guido Terreni, formerly Head of Bulgari Watches, joined the company in early 2021 to orchestrate a turn-around. We have seen new product launches even the use of new “PF” logo. We’d love to see the brand do better in the new year, by taking advantage of a booming watch market for indie brands.
2021 has been an excellent year for the independent watch brands and the strong momentum should continue into 2022. Brands are working hard to keep up with ever increasing collector appetite. In the meantime, they need to innovate constantly to stay ahead. There will be growing pains especially for some of the smaller brands facing unprecedented buyer interest. Best wishes to them to take advantage of the boom time and build up stronger brands.
The booming market is awesome for watch lovers and the collecting community too. There are so many excellent choices out there for the discovery. As the accessibility for the top brands are getting more and more difficult, it is important to cast a wider net. I have learned a lot while doing research for this article, and still have a lot more to learn. Please do leave comments if there are errors in my scoring, or if you have any insights to share.
Happy New Year! Happy Collecting!
I have been awaiting for this updated article.
Very good view point.
But how about A Lange & Sohne?
Need an update of this! Feels like the landscape has changed somewhat in the past few years.