Which brands might be the next F.P. Journe?
A quantitative attempt to an elusive and subjective question
It is not news anymore that F.P. Journe timepieces have just exploded in the auctions and the secondary market in the last 1-2 years. Take an example, the entry-level Chronomètre Bleu is trading at $60-70K and shows no sign of slowing down (3-4 times increase in value). The result is that for most watch collectors, F.P. Journe watches are just too expensive to get or too long to wait. Many collectors are turning to other independent brands that are more attainable.
An intriguing question then is which brands might have the best chance of becoming the next F.P. Journe. I posted this question to a few watch collectors and got interesting answers. One collector was betting on De Bethune, while another cited Akrivia as the most promising up-and-comer. One seasoned collector concluded that it was too hard for any independent brands to repeat the success of F.P. Journe. This assessment could very well be true. One idea came to mind, which is that we may list all the key factors contributing to F.P. Journe’s runaway success today, and then compare and rate the other promising brands on these factors. FPJ may be used as a model to gauge the likely successors. We may look at the total scores and see who will come out on top.
Let’s go over the key factors that are critical to FPJ’s success first and see what FPJ has done right. Each factor will have 5 points in our scoring system, which we will just name “Be Like Journe” Indicator for our discussion here.
Factor 1: Full product line
F.P. Journe produces watches ranging from the basic three hander, QP, Resonance, minute repeater to tourbillon. The product line includes Sports, Jewellery, and even quartz timepieces. The designs are mostly classic to meet the tastes of collectors as much as possible. The full-fledged product line offers something for everyone at different price points which ensures the wide appeal of the FPJ watches.
Factor 2: Production volume
FPJ’s annual production is about 900 which is pretty high for producing exceptional pieces. It is critical yet tricky to manage the production volume due to the costs to ramp up and down in response to demands, while ensuring top notch craftsmanship. The ideal case is to keep volume high enough to meet the market demand but not to oversupply. If the volume is too low, the brand will be just a niche player for a few watch aficionados. If the volume is too high, the market may be saturated and prices would be hurt, which in turn may discourage collectors. Creating scarcity but being able to do that at a sustained volume like FPJ does is the ticket to success.
Factor 3: GPHG awards
GPHG is the highest level award competition in watchmaking. Winning awards would show industry recognitions to validate the achievements by the brands. On top of that, the status of GPHG winners will elevate the brand status and boost collector interest and sales. It could be a perfect marketing coup for the young brands and the winning watch models. Even the nominated watches may claim some achievements and gain exposure. FPJ has won 3 times the “AIGUILLE D’OR” Grand Prix in its early years, which definitely made it stand out from the crowd (even though it decided not to participate later on).
GPHG awards are both industry recognition and marketing tools. (image from GPHG website)
Factor 4: Worldwide Boutiques and AD Network
There are 10 FPJ boutiques in all the big watch markets including Geneva, Paris, Tokyo, New York, LA, Miami, Hong Kong, Beirut, Kiev and Dubai. FPJ also has a strong AD network to facilitate the distribution of its products. The WatchBox in the US for example has been very effective in making a market for FPJ (see this video).
Factor 5: Effective marketing including social media, sponsorship, founder/CEO exposure, etc.
FPJ has been a sponsor of Horological Society of New York and Mr. Journe himself had given lectures in person for a few times. This is just one example of how FPJ has devoted its efforts to cultivate the collector community. Mr. Journe is a member of AHCI and has worked on the training and promotion of young watchmakers. The covid-19 pandemic has made it even more important to have a strong online and social media presence.
Factor 6: Auction performance
The inclusion and good performance at auctions are early signs of strong collector interest. For the independent brands, the strong results at auctions will certainly further boost brand following.
Bonus points (up to 10): additional indicators for future success mimicking FPJ’s circumstance and trajectory:
Founders are watchmakers, like Mr. F.P. Journe
Solid financial backing, like FPJ received investment from Chanel
Young founders and new companies will have ample time ahead to prove themselves, therefore may receive bonus points to compensate for their short time in operations. The development of high horology and cultivation of brand images all take time and patience. The extra points for the highly talented and determined young watch makers will enable a fairer comparison and hopefully a more accurate prediction.
In summary, the “Be Like Journe” Indicator has a total score of 30 out of 6 categories, with up to 10 bonus points for additional factors. FPJ is rated at 30 full score as a benchmark.
Now, the next step is to choose a list of candidates for our analysis here. We will have to leave out some top watchmakers if their volumes are very low and prices very high. For the brands who only produce modern designs without any classic, standard watches, we will not include them due to a smaller collector base. In any case, it is hard to get a full list in the first try and we may always add more brands to the table later.
Here are some notes on the scores:
Product line: based on the current collection in each brand’s official website.
Annual production volume: based on recent interviews with CEOs and info on the web. I checked secondary markets for numbers of new watches for sale to see if the production volume might be a big too high.
GPHG awards: based on GPHG award lists from 2001 to 2020
Boutiques/ADs: based on each brand’s official website
Marketing/branding: based on brand’s press releases, media interviews, sponsorships, ads and social media activities, etc.
Auction results: based on search results on major auction sites
Reasons for bonus points given in scoring:
H. Moser: solid funding
De Bethune: co-founder a top watchmaker; solid funding
Laurent Ferrier: son actively participating in watch design ensuring a smooth succession
Gronefeld: founders are watchmakers
Parmigiani: founder is a watchmaker
Akrivia: a young company with a founder who is a watchmaker. The founder Mr. Rexhepi had worked at Patek, BNB Concept and F.P. Journe before, so he has first hand knowledge of how the world’s best watchmakers were run. I could not help but giving Akrivia extra bonus points.
Petermann Bedat: a young company with founders who are watchmakers
Czapek: a young company
Now, we have a ranking of the likely FPJ successors, as determined by the factors that are critical to FPJ’s rise to stardom. The brands that come out on top are De Bethune and H. Moser, with Parmigiani, Laurent Ferrier and Gronefeld following closely. It is a fun exercise and through it I have learned many new things about these brands.
While FPJ’s success is certainly a tough act to follow, this table has offered some insights into how brands may improve their chances by bridging the gaps. For De Bethune, it is marketing and branding to attract more collectors, and it may want to devote a bit more energy to classic designs. For H. Moser, the gaps are in the GPHG awards and auction results, which they are improving, especially with two wins at 2020 GPHG.
FPJ’s playbook may offer useful guidance to young watchmakers. Akrivia’s highly coveted AK-06 (50 piece limited edition) was introduced in the Baselworld 2017 and sold out in the first half of 2020. The “Be Like Journe” model would suggest that they should start increasing production volume to attract more collectors. They may want to create an attractive entry level model like FPJ CB and CS that are priced in the $25K to $35K range, with an annual volume approaching 100. It is a very promising brand but they do still have a lot of work ahead if aiming for the Journe status in 10 years.
